Every term Dragonfly uses, explained in plain English by people who remember what it was like to not know what they meant. No jargon left untranslated. No assumed knowledge. Walk through one a week and within a few months you'll read a Bloomberg headline the way a portfolio manager does.
The AI race won't be won by the smartest model — it'll be won by whoever delivers intelligence the cheapest, and that comes down to energy. The metric (intelligence per watt) that quietly reorders who profits from the buildout.
Read → ConceptWhy some news moves stocks and most news doesn't. The difference between a real catalyst and noise — and why convergence is the actual signal.
Read → ConceptTRENDING, CHOPPY, CRISIS — what each one means, how VIX defines them, and why the same strategy can win in one and lose in another. The single most underappreciated lever in investing.
Read → ConceptThe 0-100 conviction score, walked through line by line. Seven components that build the upside, three fragility penalties that cap it, and how to read the hover-breakdown on any real signal card.
Read → ConceptWe backtested every "smart exit" you can imagine — trailing stops, profit targets, time-based exits. The data was unambiguous. Here's what we found, by how much, and why we don't try to time exits anymore.
Read → ConceptWhat CPI actually measures (and what it leaves out), what alternative methodologies (Chapwood, ShadowStats, Truflation, MIT Billion Prices) show, and why a 7% return at official inflation isn't the same as a 7% return at real-life inflation.
Read → ConceptWhat a 60/40 portfolio actually did from 1970–today, decade by decade. Real and nominal returns. The "lost decade" that wasn't really lost. The decade everyone forgets (hint: not the 2000s).
Read →Move the sliders. See what any recurring subscription (Netflix, Spotify, Dragonfly, anything) costs in opportunity-compounded dollars over 10/20/30 years. The math most pricing pages don't show.
Open tool → InteractiveWatch the curve. Notice how the last decade of growth dwarfs the first four. The most important math in personal finance, finally shown instead of just described.
Open tool →The biggest IPO in history, explained from scratch — Starlink, the Tesla convergence, Terafab, Macrohard, and a full map of who profits and who's at risk. Every term hover-to-define. Built to be a reference.
Read the deep dive → Deep dive · NewAfter the xAI merger, SpaceX is four companies in one: launch + Starlink + defense + AI compute (Anthropic pays $1.25B/mo, Google $920M/mo). Who owns it, every revenue stream, the full variable board, the Elon effect, and the honest risks — sourced.
Read the deep dive → Deep dive · NewSPCX lists June 12 — but the moves that matter come after: forced Nasdaq-100 index buying (~day 15), a tiny float + squeeze, why the S&P 500 sits out, and the lockup flood months later. The supply-and-demand timeline of the biggest IPO ever.
Read the deep dive → Forward look · NewThe IPO is the starting gun, not the finish line. The likely 3-act sequence next + the full private pipeline lining up to follow — Cohere, Figure, Anduril, Shield AI, LeoLabs, fusion. Mapped from our watchlist.
Read the forward look → Frontier · NewCompute, mining, and manufacturing are starting to leave the planet — and they're one connected loop. The convergence, the realistic timeline, and who's building it (Starcloud, AstroForge, Interlune, SpaceX).
Read the thesis → Deep dive · NewA $92B private company built its own blockchain and is letting any business print a dollar — the "AWS for money." What's real, what's viral hype, and who profits (CRCL, COIN, PYPL, V, MA). The facts, separated from the conspiracy.
Read the deep dive → Contrarian · NewEveryone's crowded into AI power generation. The actual chokepoint is delivery — transformers with 4-year waits, grid interconnect, the gear inside the data center. The contrarian map of who profits (ETN, PWR, GEV, VRT, MU).
Read the deep dive → Framework · NewFour companies will spend $725B on AI infrastructure this year. A 100-year-old framework — the one that called railway mania and the fiber bust — asks the only question that matters, and names the signals that will answer it.
Read the deep dive → Resource · NewMcDermitt Caldera may hold the largest lithium deposit on Earth — and the US government literally owns a piece of the first mine. The full honest map: Thacker Pass, the unproven chemistry, and the upside ladder (LAC, JNDAF, ALB).
Read the deep dive → Frontier · NewMachines are growing muscles (1,000 fluid-filled fibers) and brains are getting ports (12+ implant patients, first FDA approval racing for 2027). Your phone was the prosthetic all along — here's the honest map of the attachment: four timelines, the bandwidth problem, and who profits.
Read the deep dive → Deep dive · NewEveryone owns the obvious shovels. We went one layer deeper: who the shovel-makers themselves depend on — the single-point-of-failure suppliers under chips, robots, magnets and satellites, and the cap-table signal that spots them early. A research map, every name flagged.
Read the deep dive → Myth vs reality · NewHalf true, half myth — it depends entirely on the cooling method and the watershed. The best operators now use almost none (Amazon 0.12 L/kWh), and the heat they reject is becoming a product. The honest map, every number sourced.
Read the deep dive → The skill · NewA 12% yield looks like free money — it's usually a warning. The four checks that separate a dividend you can trust from a trap (and the one filter that does the most work), the framework behind our Income watchlist. Plain English.
Read the framework → The restart wave · NewA reactor that shut in 2019 is restarting — to power Microsoft's AI. Canada refurbished one seven months early and under budget. AI's bottomless demand for clean, 24/7 power is reviving nuclear in real time — who profits (uranium, enrichment, the utilities), and the honest multi-year timelines.
Read the deep dive → Myth vs reality · NewSodium is 300x cheaper than lithium and CATL says its batteries are "mainstream-ready." The "lithium is doomed" takes wrote themselves — but the honest answer is a segmentation story: sodium wins cheap grid storage, lithium keeps premium EVs. Which exposure actually loses, and the second-order winner.
Read the deep dive → The pivot being mispriced · NewA bitcoin miner just signed a $220M deal to run AI for Bell Canada and Cohere. The quiet rotation — crypto miners with cheap power and ready data centers turning into AI compute landlords — who's really pivoting, who's just pumping, and the honest risks.
Read the deep dive → The next bottleneck · NewFor 50 years the limit was "more transistors." That era is ending — the wall moved to moving data between chips, and the energy it burns. Why co-packaged optics is the most important hardware shift of the decade, who profits, and an honest moonshot ladder (optical computing, superconductors, quantum).
Read the deep dive → Myth vs reality · NewEveryone wrote off the CPU when GPUs won training. Then AI became agents — and a huge share of the work turned out to be logic, not math. Why the "boring" chip is the surprise winner of the agent era, what "CPU comeback" really means (ARM, not x86), and who profits.
Read the deep dive → Framework · NewCompanies seem to "come from nowhere" — they don't. The x-ray framework for a private or emerging company's real backers, integrity and likely trajectory, plus the honest method we use to decide what's actually true. The companion to our supply-chain maps.
Read the framework → Contrarian · NewThe AI brain gets the headlines, but Morgan Stanley pegs 56% of a humanoid robot's cost in the actuators — the gearbox, the roller screw, the magnet. The real pick isn't the robot, it's the part inside the joint. Who profits, who's exposed, every number sourced.
Read the deep dive → Myth vs reality · NewA mini PC ran a 235B model with no cloud, and the internet declared subscriptions dead. The chip is real, the demo is real — but here's what "killed subscriptions" leaves out (mixture-of-experts, quantization, ~11 tokens/sec), and who actually profits from AI moving to the edge.
Read the deep dive → Framework · NewA trillion-dollar IPO spawns a wave of confident takes — a viral valuation, a seductive analogy, a can't-miss playbook. Most are engineered to move you. The honest checklist for telling signal from bait, built from this week's real SpaceX examples.
Read the framework →SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Cerebras, Quantinuum — the whole wave. Live candlesticks, lockup countdowns, the cycle overlay, share-structure comparison, and our scenario read on where each could land.
Open tracker → ArchiveEvery newsletter we publish, kept on the record and scored against what actually happened — including where we were wrong. The verifiable track record, not a highlight reel.
Open archive →This section will grow. Every concept Dragonfly references on a signal card, in an email, or on the dashboard gets its own plain-English article here. If you read something on the platform and don't know what it means, that's a bug — tell us. We'll write the explainer.