The AI IPO Wave — and the data says wait
The biggest cluster of mega-cap IPOs in history (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Quantinuum, Cerebras) — none profitable. We walked the receipts (high-flyers fall ~74% from their peak, bottom ~10 months later), the share-structure overhang, the business + election-cycle backdrop, and laid out a scenario read for where each could land.
Open the living tracker →On the record — what we said (grading begins as lockups expire, Nov 2026 →)
| Our scenario call | What we predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | mildest — ~30–50% drawdown | Pending |
| Anthropic | ~30–55% | Pending |
| OpenAI | ~50–70% | Pending |
| Cerebras | ~50–75% | Pending |
| Quantinuum | deepest — ~60–85% | Pending |
| The thesis | post-lockup entry beats day-one; wave round-trips ~74% | Pending |
Lockups to watch: Cerebras ~Nov 2026 · Quantinuum ~Dec 1 2026 · SpaceX ~Dec 2026. We'll fill in the "Actual" column as each plays out — right or wrong.