Dragonfly Lens turns filings, policy changes and industry data into plain-English research on AI infrastructure, energy and critical materials — with the sources, the risks, and a corrections log we never delete.
Four checkable tests, marked with dates and sources. The “vs last week” column is the point: most weeks several cells say “no new print” — the data behind them is monthly or annual, and we would rather show that than refresh a stale number.
| Test | Latest | vs last week | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savings or credit? | Debt ~$35.6bn; newest paper junk and priced wider | new print | WEAKENING |
| Capacity ahead of demand? | H100 rents rose, not fell | same | STRENGTHENING |
| Circular financing? | A guarantee of up to $105bn, signed in August | same | WEAKENING |
| Is the narrative doing the work? | The loudest argument in the market | same | LIVE — not graded |
See the full scoreboard, with the five physical tells and every source →
We published four checkable tests for whether the AI build-out is real demand or malinvestment — three months on, one test improved, two got worse, and we name two things our June piece missed.
Read the scorecard →More in the Learn section — every deep dive is free.
Three rules. They are the whole method, and you can hold us to all three.
Every claim is sourced, and fact is kept separate from hype. We route you to the primary source document — the filing, the grant, the rule change — not a summary of someone else's summary.
Every piece states the specific conditions that would break the thesis — what would have to be true for us to be wrong. Positions are held until the thesis breaks; we do not publish sell rules.
When we get something wrong, we say so — publicly, dated, and never deleted. The misses sit on the shelf next to the wins, on purpose. See the corrections log →
One thing to be clear about: our historical results are a labelled backtest — what the methodology would have flagged across public data, not money that was traded. The forward, dated record began in May 2026 and is still young. Judge us on what comes next.
See the track record → · See the corrections log →
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I spent most of my life doing carpentry, and over 15 years figuring this out. I am not a hedge fund manager and not
a financial advisor — this is editorial research. I built Dragonfly Systems because I got tired of tracking all
of this by hand; the system does it now. I publish it because more people should have access to this kind of research,
and because keeping a public track record keeps me honest. The name comes from the dragonfly — reportedly the most
effective hunter in the natural world. Not brute force: precision. Not more signals, better ones.
Questions or feedback? Write to officialdragonflysystems@gmail.com. I read everything.