Every thesis we track, back to the moment it became publicly documentable.
Winners and losers both shown. Updated May 04, 2026.
Dragonfly Systems monitors government grants, patent filings, procurement contracts, and regulatory signals across pre-discovery sectors — before they reach mainstream financial media.
Same portfolio, same entry dates — but what if you had used a different exit strategy? Each strategy is simulated against actual price history for every thesis position. This shows which approach has historically captured the most profit across all 67 tracked positions.
Top positions — what each one's best strategy was vs. buy & hold:
Strategy simulation uses actual daily close prices from Yahoo Finance. "Best strategy" is determined per-position, not portfolio-wide. Results are hypothetical — assumes perfect execution at trigger prices with no slippage.
Trailing stop column: If our exit signal system had triggered a 40%-from-peak stop on any underperformer, this is what the exit return would have been. Blank = stop never triggered (still holding at a gain).
| Ticker | Thesis / Keyword | Entry | Hold | Return | vs S&P 500 | With Stop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Data Center Infrastructure | ||||||
| VRTHIGH | Vertiv Holdings — data center power+cooling infrastructure; every hyperscal… keyword: liquid cooling | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | +2376.9% | +2279.5% vs SPY | +585.6% |
| MODHIGH | Modine Manufacturing — thermal management for AI data centers; pivoted from… keyword: liquid cooling | 2022-06 | 3y 11m | +2165.1% | +2079.2% vs SPY | +607.6% |
| SMCIHIGH | Super Micro Computer — AI server infrastructure; liquid-cooled GPU rack systems for every hyperscaler AI cluster keyword: liquid cooling + AI server | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +16.0% | -8.5% vs SPY | +2970% stop saved ~2954pp |
| CRWVHIGH | CoreWeave — GPU cloud infrastructure; hyperscalers pay for priority H100/H200 access; AI compute is the new oil keyword: GPU cloud · AI compute · IPO Mar 2025 | 2025-03 | 1y 2m | +217.6% | +212.2% vs SPY | — |
| Carbon Capture / CCUS | ||||||
| OXYMED | OXY acquired Carbon Engineering — largest direct air capture plant in const… keyword: direct air capture | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | +1.5% | -95.9% vs SPY | -31.4% |
| NPWRMED | NET Power — oxy-combustion power generation with inherent carbon capture, n… keyword: carbon capture | 2023-06 | 2y 11m | -86.4% | -160.6% vs SPY | -32.8% saved +54pp |
| ETF Baskets | ||||||
| NUKZHIGH | ETF: Range Nuclear Renaissance — pure nuclear energy exposure; CCJ, NLR, OK… keyword: small modular reactor | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | +192.7% | +95.3% vs SPY | — |
| COPXMED | ETF: Global X Copper Miners — diversified copper exposure; FCX, SCCO, HBM, … keyword: copper | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +179.5% | +69.6% vs SPY | -13.5% |
| UFOMED | ETF: Procure Space — diversified space sector exposure; RKLB, ASTS, LMT, RT… keyword: launch vehicle | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +103.7% | +43.8% vs SPY | -40.2% |
| SILMED | ETF: Global X Silver Miners — diversified silver producer exposure; WPM, PA… keyword: silver | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +91.7% | -18.2% vs SPY | -39.8% |
| Gold / Silver / Mining | ||||||
| GOLDMED | Barrick Gold — world's #2 producer; Nevada JV with Newmont maximizes margin… keyword: mining | 2020-01 | 6y 4m | +1276.5% | +1133.8% vs SPY | +630.2% |
| WPMMED | Streaming model — royalty-based gold/silver exposure with no mining cost ri… keyword: mining | 2020-01 | 6y 4m | +353.9% | +211.2% vs SPY | +12.1% |
| AGAG.VMED | Argenta Silver Corp — Canadian silver junior; leveraged play on silver supp… keyword: silver | 2024-01 | 2y 3m | +340.0% | +288.1% vs SPY | +108.0% |
| AEMMED | Agnico Eagle — low-cost senior gold miner, Canada-focused, strong ESG profi… keyword: mining | 2020-01 | 6y 4m | +248.0% | +105.3% vs SPY | -38.5% |
| NEMMED | Gold bull market — monetary policy + debt supercycle; mine tailings signal … keyword: mining | 2020-01 | 6y 4m | +200.1% | +57.4% vs SPY | +10.6% |
| Graphene / Advanced Materials | ||||||
| GMG.AXHIGH | First commercial graphene lubricant — measurable fuel savings in independen… keyword: graphene | 2021-03 | 5y 2m | +84.6% | -14.1% vs SPY | -6.6% |
| Grid Infrastructure | ||||||
| PWRHIGH | Quanta Services — builds transmission lines, substations, fiber, renewable … keyword: transmission infrastructure | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +565.5% | +505.6% vs SPY | — |
| EOSEHIGH | Eos Energy — zinc battery grid storage; no lithium, no cobalt, no thermal r… keyword: grid storage | 2022-06 | 3y 11m | +416.0% | +330.1% vs SPY | +3.2% |
| Lithium / Battery | ||||||
| SQMMED | World's #2 lithium producer; Atacama brine lowest-cost source globally keyword: direct lithium extraction | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +122.5% | +12.6% vs SPY | +40.1% |
| SGMLMED | Low-carbon Brazilian hard-rock lithium — battery grade concentrate at scale keyword: lithium | 2022-04 | 4y 1m | +41.5% | -26.6% vs SPY | +59.4% saved +18pp |
| LITMED | Lithium supply chain ETF — broadest battery sector exposure keyword: lithium | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +39.0% | -70.9% vs SPY | -14.3% |
| ALBMED | Lithium demand to triple — Albemarle dominant low-cost producer of battery-… keyword: lithium | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +35.1% | -74.8% vs SPY | +28.6% |
| LACMED | Lithium Americas — Thacker Pass, largest known lithium deposit in North Ame… keyword: lithium | 2021-03 | 5y 2m | -43.6% | -142.3% vs SPY | -31.3% saved +12pp |
| Mine Tailings / Critical Mineral Reclamation | ||||||
| PPTAHIGH | Perpetua Resources — Stibnite Gold project with active EPA mine remediation… keyword: mine tailings | 2021-06 | 4y 11m | +243.8% | +159.9% vs SPY | -30.3% |
| NVRO.VHIGH | EnviroGold Global — proprietary tech to reclaim gold, copper, silver, and R… keyword: mine tailings | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +30.8% | -29.1% vs SPY | — |
| Natural Hydrogen | ||||||
| GHY.AXHIGH | Geological hydrogen — zero-cost fuel if flow tests confirm commercial extra… keyword: natural hydrogen | 2023-04 | 3y 1m | -13.8% | -96.0% vs SPY | -40.0% |
| Neuromorphic / Photonic Compute | ||||||
| LITEHIGH | 800G fiber optic transceivers — AI clusters need 10-100x more optics bandwi… keyword: optical computing | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | +1701.2% | +1603.8% vs SPY | -30.0% |
| NVDAHIGH | AI accelerator — ChatGPT makes GPU demand visible; 'neuromorphic' in DOE AI… keyword: neuromorphic | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | +1287.8% | +1190.4% vs SPY | — |
| COHRHIGH | Coherent optics for AI data center bandwidth — 'photonic computing' fires H… keyword: photonic computing | 2022-01 | 4y 3m | +363.8% | +299.4% vs SPY | -37.4% |
| BRN.AXHIGH | Neuromorphic edge AI chip — 1000x lower power than GPU for inference keyword: neuromorphic | 2021-04 | 5y 1m | -73.5% | -166.1% vs SPY | -35.9% saved +38pp |
| New Energies / Geothermal | ||||||
| ORAMED | Always-on geothermal baseload — 'enhanced geothermal' in DOE GeoVision gran… keyword: geothermal | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +27.9% | -82.0% vs SPY | -18.9% |
| New Energies / Hydrogen | ||||||
| BEHIGH | Fuel cells for data centers + microgrids — hydrogen-ready, 24/7 clean power keyword: hydrogen fuel cell | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +964.6% | +854.7% vs SPY | -7.2% |
| MAXX.CNMED | MAXX Power Mining Corp — Canadian clean energy, EV charging + hydrogen powe… keyword: hydrogen fuel cell | 2022-06 | 3y 11m | +185.2% | +99.3% vs SPY | -10.2% |
| PLUGHIGH | Green hydrogen economy — SK $1.5B validates commercial scale keyword: hydrogen fuel cell | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | -90.3% | -200.2% vs SPY | +34.7% saved +125pp |
| Quantum Computing | ||||||
| IONQMED | First pure-play publicly traded quantum computing company — trapped ion arc… keyword: quantum computing | 2021-10 | 4y 7m | +402.2% | +325.7% vs SPY | +101.8% |
| RGTIMED | Rigetti superconducting quantum computers — cloud-accessible quantum API keyword: quantum computing | 2021-12 | 4y 5m | +67.1% | -3.1% vs SPY | -39.4% |
| Rare Earths / Critical Minerals | ||||||
| UUUUHIGH | Dual uranium + REE producer; White Mesa Mill sole operating US REE processo… keyword: rare earth | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +449.7% | +339.8% vs SPY | +57.6% |
| NICU.VHIGH | Power Nickel — nickel+cobalt+copper+PGM Quebec; NICU deposit hits all criti… keyword: nickel | 2022-06 | 3y 11m | +436.6% | +350.7% vs SPY | -36.6% |
| MPHIGH | Only US rare earth mine + processor — direct play on China supply chain ris… keyword: rare earth | 2020-11 | 5y 5m | +363.0% | +247.4% vs SPY | +105.1% |
| SCCOMED | Southern Copper — world's lowest-cost copper producer, massive Peruvian/Mex… keyword: copper | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +231.8% | +121.9% vs SPY | -28.5% |
| HBMMED | Hudbay Minerals — Canadian copper+zinc+gold; Copper Mountain + Arizona copp… keyword: copper | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +212.4% | +102.5% vs SPY | -27.7% |
| NEO.TOHIGH | Neo Performance Materials (Toronto) — processes rare earth oxides into NdFe… keyword: permanent magnet | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +133.7% | +23.8% vs SPY | -1.2% |
| FCXMED | Copper — the metal of electrification; every EV, grid upgrade, and data cen… keyword: copper | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +123.7% | +13.8% vs SPY | +10.4% |
| TTDKYMED | TDK Corporation (ADR) — world's largest NdFeB magnet maker; also MLCC capac… keyword: permanent magnet | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +80.3% | -29.6% vs SPY | -29.8% |
| REMXHIGH | Rare earth ETF — broadest exposure to critical mineral supply chain buildou… keyword: rare earths | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +73.4% | -36.5% vs SPY | +16.9% |
| SBSWMED | Sibanye-Stillwater — world's largest PGM producer; platinum + palladium + r… keyword: platinum group | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | -9.1% | -119.0% vs SPY | -24.5% |
| NBHIGH | NioCorp Developments — niobium+scandium+titanium Nebraska; all three are Do… keyword: critical mineral | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | -20.1% | -80.0% vs SPY | -42.1% |
| Robotics / Automation | ||||||
| TERMED | Teradyne — owns Universal Robots (world leader in cobots) + semiconductor t… keyword: collaborative robot | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +195.8% | +85.9% vs SPY | -15.6% |
| SERVMED | Serve Robotics — NVIDIA-backed sidewalk delivery robots; early commercial d… keyword: autonomous mobile robot | 2023-07 | 2y 10m | -60.5% | -128.6% vs SPY | -77.6% |
| Semiconductor Chokepoints | ||||||
| ASMLHIGH | ASML Holding — monopoly on EUV lithography machines; if ASML stops, AI chip… keyword: chip manufacturing | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +86.8% | +26.9% vs SPY | -40.9% |
| MUHIGH | Micron Technology — memory chokepoint; HBM in every AI GPU; $6.1B CHIPS Act award keyword: HBM · CHIPS Act | 2022-08 | 2y 9m | +1077.0% | +1029.5% vs SPY | — |
| ARMHIGH | Arm Holdings — AI chip design chokepoint; every GPU, CPU, mobile, and edge AI processor uses ARM architecture keyword: chip architecture · AI chokepoint · IPO Sep 2023 | 2023-09 | 1y 8m | +306.9% | +272.8% vs SPY | — |
| AMDHIGH | Advanced Micro Devices — AI accelerator competitor; MI300X GPU for AI workloads; powers DOE Frontier, world's first exascale supercomputer keyword: exascale · AI accelerator | 2022-06 | 2y 11m | +246.1% | +159.6% vs SPY | — |
| AVGOHIGH | Broadcom — custom AI ASIC designer; builds Google TPU, Meta MTIA, Apple neural engine; hyperscalers pay billions to reduce NVIDIA dependency keyword: custom ASIC · AI silicon | 2023-01 | 2y 4m | +698.3% | +600.4% vs SPY | — |
| TSMHIGH | TSMC — manufactures every leading-edge AI chip; NVIDIA H100, AMD MI300X, Apple M-series all fab here; $6.6B CHIPS Act Arizona award keyword: CHIPS Act · leading-edge foundry | 2022-08 | 2y 9m | +393.7% | +308.8% vs SPY | — |
| AMATHIGH | Applied Materials — deposition and etch equipment for every AI chip fab; if AMAT stops, TSMC and Samsung stop keyword: CHIPS Act · semiconductor equipment | 2022-08 | 2y 9m | +320.2% | +235.3% vs SPY | — |
| LRCXHIGH | Lam Research — etch and deposition equipment; critical chokepoint in 3D NAND and advanced logic manufacturing for AI memory keyword: CHIPS Act · etch equipment | 2022-08 | 2y 9m | +504.9% | +420.0% vs SPY | — |
| Solar Technology | ||||||
| FSLRHIGH | First Solar — US-manufactured thin-film CdTe panels; IRA domestic content b… keyword: solar cell efficiency | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +139.0% | +79.1% vs SPY | +53.9% |
| ENPHHIGH | Enphase Energy — microinverters + home batteries; software intelligence lay… keyword: solar cell efficiency | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | -80.3% | -190.2% vs SPY | -25.8% saved +54pp |
| Solid State Battery | ||||||
| SLDPMED | Solid Power — BMW and Ford-backed solid-state battery developer keyword: solid state battery | 2021-12 | 4y 4m | -73.7% | -137.0% vs SPY | -40.7% saved +33pp |
| QSMED | QuantumScape — VW-backed solid state battery could 2x EV range; no lithium … keyword: solid state battery | 2020-11 | 5y 5m | -80.4% | -194.2% vs SPY | +35.0% saved +115pp |
| Space / Satellite | ||||||
| ASTSHIGH | AST SpaceMobile — direct-to-cell satellite broadband; T-Mobile + AT&T agree… keyword: satellite broadband | 2023-06 | 2y 11m | +1165.9% | +1088.4% vs SPY | -28.0% |
| RKLBHIGH | Rocket Lab — only vertically integrated small satellite company; builds roc… keyword: launch vehicle | 2021-10 | 4y 7m | +393.2% | +316.7% vs SPY | -39.1% |
| PLMED | Planet Labs — daily Earth imaging across entire planet; NGA + intel communi… keyword: geospatial intelligence | 2021-12 | 4y 4m | +289.7% | +226.8% vs SPY | -40.3% |
| LUNRHIGH | Intuitive Machines — NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services; first US soft … keyword: lunar payload | 2024-02 | 2y 2m | +282.4% | +234.9% vs SPY | -6.4% |
| RDWMED | Redwire Space — in-space manufacturing, deployable solar arrays, microgravi… keyword: space manufacturing | 2021-09 | 4y 8m | -11.0% | -80.7% vs SPY | -26.6% |
| BKSYMED | BlackSky Technology — SAR + multispectral satellite constellation; NGA DoD … keyword: geospatial intelligence | 2021-09 | 4y 7m | -59.6% | -132.3% vs SPY | -34.6% saved +25pp |
| Superconductors | ||||||
| AMSCMED | American Superconductor — grid stability, offshore wind, and naval defense … keyword: superconductor | 2022-01 | 4y 4m | +376.5% | +316.6% vs SPY | -41.9% |
| Uranium / Nuclear | ||||||
| CCJHIGH | Nuclear renaissance — net-zero commitments signal sustained uranium demand keyword: uranium enrichment | 2020-09 | 5y 8m | +963.5% | +842.1% vs SPY | +222.8% |
| OKLOHIGH | Micro-reactor for AI data center power — OpenAI-backed; 'SMR' fires HIGH on… keyword: small modular reactor | 2024-05 | 1y 11m | +733.1% | +691.4% vs SPY | -24.4% |
| UECHIGH | US domestic uranium production required under national security policy keyword: uranium enrichment | 2021-03 | 5y 2m | +604.7% | +506.0% vs SPY | -4.7% |
| NXEHIGH | Arrow deposit — world's largest undeveloped high-grade uranium advancing to… keyword: uranium enrichment | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +365.4% | +255.5% vs SPY | +44.4% |
| URAHIGH | Uranium ETF — diversified exposure across miners, developers, and converter… keyword: uranium enrichment | 2021-01 | 5y 4m | +339.3% | +229.4% vs SPY | — |
| DNNHIGH | Wheeler River Phoenix ISR project — potentially Canada's lowest-cost uraniu… keyword: uranium enrichment | 2021-06 | 4y 11m | +184.1% | +100.2% vs SPY | -4.5% |
| SMRHIGH | First SMR to receive NRC design approval — keyword 'small modular reactor' … keyword: small modular reactor | 2022-05 | 4y 0m | +15.1% | -67.8% vs SPY | -14.7% |
| Water Security | ||||||
| ERIIMED | Energy Recovery — pressure exchanger tech cuts desalination energy cost 60%… keyword: desalination | 2023-01 | 3y 4m | -46.5% | -143.9% vs SPY | -11.3% saved +35pp |
These companies are private. You cannot buy them yet. But the government signals are already flowing. When they go public, subscribers who have been tracking the thesis do not scramble. They already know the story.
When a signal fires in one sector, it rarely stops there. Institutional desks pay thousands to map these chains. Here it is plain.
What subscribers get: Smart alerts when new catalysts fire across these sectors. Full company profiles. Conviction ratings. 5-year thesis track record updated weekly. Community watchlist intelligence. Virtual portfolio comparison. 3 emails/day max — only when something worth acting on happens.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Returns reflect price appreciation from thesis inception dates to today — not actual client returns. This is not financial advice. Dragonfly Systems is an independent research publication, not a registered investment adviser.
Track record data sourced from Yahoo Finance. Prices as of May 04, 2026.